A week after Iran offered us the best opportunity for an attack, Israel did not carry it out. Time is running out quickly as Iran has enriched its 4% uranium to 20%, thus greatly reducing the size of its stocks. Smaller stocks will be easier to hide. After three months of enrichment, no Israeli attack will be able to eliminate Iran’s nuclear stocks. Every sane person understands that sanctions are futile. Not only they are torpedoed by Russia and China, but even the strongest sanctions... Full Story

The United States apparently has reached the point where it must either accept that Iran will develop nuclear weapons at some point if it wishes, or take military action to prevent this. There is a third strategy, however: Washington can seek to redefine the Iranian question. As we have no idea what leaders on either side are thinking, exploring this represents an exercise in geopolitical theory. Let’s begin with the two apparent stark choices. Diplomacy vs. the Military OptionThe... Full Story

Iran surprised everyone by moving its entire stock of low-enriched uranium from underground to a 20% enrichment facility. Unless, that is, Iran fooled IAEA inspectors with half-empty containers. It is possible that Iran’s brazen defiance is rooted in its certainty that Israel won’t attack even under the best imaginable circumstances. Absent an attack now, Iran would reasonably feel safe in proceeding to enrich its uranium stocks to 80% and weaponize them. But there is yet another... Full Story

Not long after Obama returned US ambassador to Damascus, Iran came up with a better offer – that country sent its president. Obama’s error is his hallmark confidence building approach which calls for incremental steps. But in order to embrace Washington, Assad has to abandon Iran and Lebanon. Certainly, he would require much stronger incentives for that than ambassadorial relations. Obama can woo Assad away from Iran with really big money, but no money has been promised yet, while... Full Story

Dubai police raised the number of suspects in Mabhouh assassination to 26, thus we can safely assume the group numbered close to 50 people. By any standards, that’s a grandiose operation. Moreover, three agents reportedly fled through Iran with forged passports – an act of brazen courage, indeed. From the publicly available information, Mabhouh emerges as a mid-level, expendable manager for Iranian arms trafficking to Gaza, not someone worthy of such a mammoth operation. Samson... Full Story

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will not support "crippling" sanctions against Iran, including any that may be slapped on the Islamic Republic's banking or energy sectors, a senior Russian diplomat said Wednesday. (Link)Russia nor China will support crippling sanctions and the reason is that America is using these sanctions to cripple and hurt the people in Iran. America hopes to have a continuation of the uprisings that America is fueling in Iran.As Russia says: "We are not got going to work on... Full Story

A few overseas sources are reporting that there is currently a coup underway in Niger. Forces – currently unidentified – are trying to forcibly remove the quasi-dictator Mamadou Tandja from power. It seems to be a coup d’état as opposed to a general uprising since smoke is reported to be coming from Tandja’s palace but there are no report of general violence beyond the normal “background noise” of Nigerian society. Supposedly Tandja’s guardsmen... Full Story

The Egyptians blew the whistle: Israeli and US navies operate in the Persian Gulf. The only plausible reason is to prepare commando landings, as the Egyptians had correctly figured out. Special troops will deactivate Iranian air defenses and clear the way for Israeli strike. IAF landing on American aircraft carriers in Persian Gulf is a very remote possibility. If true, the attack would mark another touch of genius, right after we saw one in the Gaza war. Commando raids so deep into the enemy... Full Story

The US president will meet next week despite China’s vigorous protests. The meeting is practically senseless: Dalai Lama advocates Tibetan autonomy which the Chinese won’t allow, and the matter is moot, anyway, because Chinese government planted a sheer number of colonists in Tibet to drastically change its demography. Obama hinted that the meeting is a no-starter by scheduling it in the Map Room rather than Oval Cabinet. China will react by opposing sanctions on Iran. Samson... Full Story

Though most commentators concentrate on the fact that Russia condemned Iran’s next stage of uranium enrichment, the wording is much more important. The Russian condemnation came from deputy FM, a decidedly lowly figure. He lamented that Iranians did not give the West enough time to find acceptable compromises on the schedule of exporting Iran’s nuclear stocks. That way, Russia accused the West of not giving in to the Iranian scheme. Iran sought to receive enriched uranium from the... Full Story