The situation with Syria is much more difficult than with Libya, because this time the West did not obtain approval from Russia and China, writes Le Figaro . “Russia directly colliding with Islamists in Chechnya and Dagestan, is afraid that instead of Assad (secular) the Islamist government will come”.  If some countries want to intervene in Syria without the UN, they know perfectly well that in this case, they face retaliatory geopolitical moves by Russia, said Balansh.

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The situation with Syria is much more difficult than in Libya, because this time the West did not the operation in Libya was based on air strikes, in Syria, such a strategy will be more complex due to the high population density . As a it will necessary to send troops to fight in Syria, and the victory is not assured, because Assad still has the support not only from the Alawite and the Christian minority, but also by the Sunni majority, in particular, the business community.  The Assad regime “is not yet ripe to fall,” convinced Balansh.

In contrast to the Gaddafi army weakened by purges, the Syrian army is strong and is second in power after the Egyptian. Therefore, the opposition can not rely on the mass desertion. In addition, the NATO intervention will lead to a dangerous “internationalize” the conflict, which would be involved, on the one hand, the West, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, on the other – Russia and Iran, says the publication.

Even if a military invasion will lead to an end of Assad, the U.S. experience in Iraq shows it will not mean the solution to all problems. As acknowledged expert Daniel Baymana Brookings Insitute, the Syrian opposition is split on a regional, religious and political grounds. In this respect, the Civil War most probably will follow,  which will force the Western troops for several years to stay in Syria, or to seize power, The situation does not look a little attractive to the West” – recognizes the correspondent Laura Rem.

Finally, the risks with intervention, does not promise to the West “return on investment,” the newspaper continues: “Unlike Iraq or Libya, Syria has very little oil,” – says Fabrice Balansh. In addition, the French and the U.S. government realize that you should never start a war before the presidential election: “No success abroad does not bring votes, and even takes them – emphasizes Balansh. – In fact, most Russian veto on the West arm, which in does not really want to get involved in a war in Syria.

Source: Le Figaro

 

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